Since few prognosticators like to have their predictions revisited, it’s nice to know that 12 long months separate new-year predictions from end-of-year realities.

While I can’t seem to “remember” any unrealized predictions for 2008, one prognostication success stands out clearly in my mind. Early last year, I claimed that 2008 would be the year that online video came into its own in the b-to-b space.  And, in fact, a recent study released by Dynamic Logic pretty much verifies what I thought would happen. Online video, both pre/post roll and in banner, are both the fastest growing and most effective modes of online advertising (at the moment). Our own experience bears this out where a recent Q4 online campaign saw pre-roll video outperform expandable units by nearly double in CTR and engagement metrics.

So what does 2009 hold for b-to-b digital marketing? Well, based on multiple factors—the economy, broadband penetration, surfing habits and changing demographics—I feel comfortable venturing the following educated guesses:

1. Streaming video will continue to grow and perform. A review of Nielsen’s “clutter” research shows that there is an inverse correlation between growth of online banner clutter and decrease in banner metrics. In this environment, advertisers trying to break through to increase both brand engagement and achieve click-through will need to aggressively use the online advertising modes that are delivering the best results. At the moment, the best mode is video, followed by expandable rich media, followed by rich media.
2. Brand engagement metrics will grow in importance for b-to-b advertisers. For years b-to-b advertisers have relied on clicks to your Web site (as measured by CTR and CPA) as the key benchmark for banner performance. However, for complex, multi-stage buy processes, it may be better to “push” your key content and messag/selling points to an expandable, “rich-content” unit that can tell your story without requiring users to leave their self-selected content. When doing this, CTR becomes less important than measurable actions and time-spent metrics. B-to-c marketers with longer buy cycles (e.g., the automotive industry) have known this for some time now, and b-to-b advertisers are catching on.
3. Measurability will be the key demand in 2009. Year after year we see more advertising budgets move from “traditional” to online media. As this happens, “traditional” marketers are seeing their results come back in much more quantifiable detail. Frankly, this can get addictive. As online has become mainstream, and as the pressures of the economy bear down on marketing budgets, we will all be under greater pressure to justify every dollar spent. This pressure will lead more budget dollars into DR, SEM and online display.
4. Mobile will join the conversation.  In the U.S., mobile has been an afterthought for years. The potential has been there in geographical pockets, but mainstream adoption of smart devices has prevented mobile from being a key component of marketing programs. This is the year this will change. Google reported at their B-to-B Summit in August that roughly 60% of Google searches worldwide were coming from mobile handsets. Though the U.S. lags far behind here, the introduction of the iPhone, G-phones and the newer BlackBerrys that can take advantage of the new high speed mobile offerings from U.S. carriers will finally create a draw that will bring the U.S. mobile market to critical mass. Particularly in the b-to-b arena, key target audiences will be very reachable by mobile marketing.
5. Social media will start carving out its piece of b-to-b budgets. While the past year seemed to be the year of “interested conversations,” this will be the year many b-to-b marketers start trying out social media as part of their marketing programs. I liken this very much to SEM several years ago. Every marketer knew they should be involved in SEM, but didn’t know exactly how to fit it in. I don’t think that this is the year social media will “break through” and become a primary consideration, however, but I do think it moves to the “big boy table” for this year’s meal.

The bottom line for this year is that digital channel—online, search, mobile and social media—will make a big push into b-to-b marketing plans for 2009. Given the predictions for the overall economy, this will often be at the expense of “traditional” media channels. As a digital marketer, I am very excited by this prospect, but also realize that this looks very much like the realization of the proverb regarding “interesting times.”